Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA report.
The word “record” continues to fly around agriculture as USDA released its WASDE and Crop Production reports. In August, USDA projected record corn and soybean crops. In September, USDA increased the size of those records. In both cases, crop acreage was held steady, going against some suggestions that acreage might be reduced, based on certified plantings from the Farm Service Agency. The national average corn yield was raised to 171.7 bushels per acre. USDA also raised the corn yield estimates in 24 states. Only one state (Pennsylvania) saw a reduction in expected corn yield. These yield estimates increase projected 2014 corn production to 14.395 billion bushels, roughly 470 million bushels more last year’s record crop. The national average soybean yields increased to 46.6 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels above last month’s estimate. Twenty state soybean yields were also increased. Soybean production is now pegged at 3.913 billion bushels, that’s over 550 million bushels more than the previous record.
On the demand side, USDA put forward increases in feed and residual, ethanol, food, seed, and export uses for corn. The shifts brought corn demand to a record 13.605 billion bushels. But with supplies still outracing demand, corn ending stocks are projected to exceed 2 billion bushels. With the increased ending stocks, USDA lowered the midpoint of its season-average price range by 40 cents to $3.50 per bushel. Domestic crush and export demand increased for soybeans. But the general story is the same as it is for corn, higher ending stocks and lower crop prices. The midpoint of the season-average price range fell 35 cents to $10 per bushel.
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