Some Crops Grow Without Rain (9/12/13)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA report.

97hartsmThe latest USDA updates showed a growing corn crop and a shrinking soybean crop. The projections for corn put the nationwide average yield at 155.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from last month and over 30 bushels better than last year. That puts corn production at 13.84 billion bushels, a record by over 700 million bushels. Soybean projections are a nationwide yield of 41.2 bushels per acre and production in the 3.15 billion bushel range. That soybean yield is down 1.4 bushels from last month, but still 1.6 bushels better than last year.

On the demand side, the changes were concentrated. For corn, all of the shifts were on the old crop with feed, ethanol, and export demand being raised. New crop corn demand was left unchanged. For soybeans, the major demand shifts were for the new crop as domestic crush and export demand were both lowered as we enter the marketing year. In the end, corn’s supply gains outweighed the demand shifts, so 2013/14 projected ending stocks are up slightly compared to last month’s projections, to 1.855 billion bushels. With that slight increase, USDA lowered the midpoint of its season-average price range to $4.80 per bushel. For soybeans, the supply moves also outweighed the demand shifts, but the moves were in the opposite direction from corn. So 2013/14 ending stocks tightened back to 150 million bushels and the midpoint of the season-average price range jumped $1.15 to $12.50 per bushel.

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