Despite Weather Issues, Yield Estimates Better Than Expected (8/10/17)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Chad Hart imageThe first official tour of the nation’s fields this summer resulted in better crop yield and production estimates than the market was expecting. The national corn yield estimate came in at 169.5 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from trend, but that was still a couple of bushels above trade expectations. If realized that points to a 14.15 billion bushel corn crop, which would be the 3rd largest ever, continuing a string of large corn crops. The soybean yield estimate was 49.4 bushels per acre. That is 1.4 bushels above trend and sets up this year’s crop to exceed last year’s. So bushels and bins would continue to overflow with these estimates.

On the demand side, news was mixed. Soybean export projections were raised 75 million bushels, but domestic soybean crush was lowered by 10 million. Corn feed usage and exports were reduced by 25 million bushels each. Combined, the corn adjustments shrank 2017/18 ending stock projections by 52 million, but stocks are still projected above 2.25 billion bushels. For soybeans, ending stock projections rose by 15 million bushels, to 475 million. For prices, USDA held their price range for corn, leaving the midpoint at $3.30 per bushel. While for soybeans, the price range tightened a bit, losing a bit more than the high end than the low, with the midpoint now at $9.30 per bushel.

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