August’s USDA WASDE Summary

Chad Hart image

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

For corn, national yield was set at 181.8 bu/ac, up 3.3 bu/ac from trend. That adds 278 million bushels to production, raising total production to 15.278 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 202 bu/ac (again, based on Aug. 1 conditions, up 2% from 2019), but the larger improvements in yields were to our north and east. Illinois was set at 207 bu/ac, up 14.4% from last year. Minnesota was set at 197 bu/ac, up 13.9% from last year. Indiana was set at 188 bu/ac, up 11.2% from 2019. On the demand side, exports were increased 20 million bushels on old crop and 75 million bushels on new crop. The weakening of the dollar, the lower prices, and advance export sales are all supporting these changes. Feed and residual was raised 75 million bushels as well, but the change here is more related to the thought that there are larger crop losses (residual use) for a larger crop than increased feed consumption. So usage went up 170 million, but supply grew by 278 million, so 2020/21 ending stocks rose by 108 million and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate dropped a quarter, to $3.10 per bushel.

For soybeans, national yield was set at 53.3 bu/ac, up 3.5 bu/ac from trend.  That adds 295 million bushels to production, raising total production to 4.425 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 58 bu/ac (again, based on Aug. 1 conditions, up 5.5% from last year), but the larger improvements in yields were to our north and east. Illinois was set at 64 bu/ac, up 18.5% from last year. Minnesota was set at 51 bu/ac, up 15.9% from last year.  Indiana was set at 61 bu/ac, up 19.6% from 2019. On the demand side, exports were increased 75 million bushels on new crop. The weakening of the dollar, the lower prices, and advance export sales are all supporting these changes.  Crush was raised 20 million bushels and seed and residual usage went up 5 million bushels. Like with corn, soybean supplies grew more than soybean usage, so 2020/21 ending stocks rose by 185 million bushels (to 610 million bushels) and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate dropped 15 cents, to $8.35 per bushel.

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