For 2023 corn, USDA raised its yield estimate by 1.9 bushels per acre (to 174.9 bushels per acre; Iowa’s estimate came in at 200, up a bushel). The yield change pushed production up by 170 million bushels. Feed usage was increased by 50 million bushels, as were exports, along with a 25 million bushel bump for ethanol. Thus, 2023-24 ending stocks increased by only 45 million bushels. Given the larger stocks, USDA decreased its 2023-24 season average price to $4.85 per bushel (down 10 cents).
For 2023 soybeans, USDA raised its yield estimate by 0.3 bushels per acre (to 49.9 bushels per acre; Iowa’s estimate remains at 58). The soybean production estimate rose by 25 million bushels. Seed and residual usage was decreased by less than 1 million bushels. There were no other changes to soy usage. So 2023-24 ending stocks increased by 25 million bushels to 245 million. USDA maintained its 2023-24 season average price at $12.90 per bushel.
For the 2024 crops, USDA has lower corn planting, higher soy planting, continuing struggles to boost usage leading to higher ending stocks, and lower prices across the board.
An agricultural economics and business website.