April’s USDA WASDE and Export Sales reports

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

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In the reports released today, usage declined, but by less than the trade expected, so futures moved slightly higher with the release of the report. For corn, feed usage was increased by 150 million bushels.  This is due to corn directly replacing part of the loss of distillers grains as ethanol plants close and distillers disappears. Ethanol usage of corn declined by a staggering 375 million bushels. At least eight ethanol plants that have idled, with many more slowing production. The weekly fuel report from the Energy Information Administration showed a roughly 40% cut in ethanol production over the past two weeks. Add in a couple of other minor adjustments and ending stock projections rose 200 million bushels, putting 2019/20 ending stocks at just shy of 2.1 billion bushels. USDA lowered its 2019/20 marketing year price estimate 20 cents, to $3.60 per bushel.

For soybeans, crush was raised 20 million bushels, but exports were lowered 50 million. The increased crush is to create more soybean meal (again, replacing distillers grains). Export pace, while improving, has been well below what was needed to reach USDA’s original export estimate. Factor in a 25 million bushel drop in seed and residual (mainly an adjustment to the planted acreage number), and 2019/20 ending stocks rose 55 million bushels to 480 million in total. The 2019/20 marketing year average price estimate was lowered 5 cents to $8.65 per bushel.

While the WASDE report did not reflect positive news from exports. The weekly Export Sales report did show higher than expected corn sales, along with soybean sales that were within expectations, but at the higher end. China has been a pleasant surprise in the corn market (up 88% for the year). The Asian markets, outside of China, have been improving for soybeans.

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COVID-19 Resources for Agriculture

While in-person events remain on hold, ISU Extension and Outreach, including Ag Decision Maker, remains committed to serving Iowans. A few resources are included below, and more will be added as needed

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February’s WASDE Report Had Few Crop Demand Adjustments (2/11/20)

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Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

February’s WASDE report had the potential for some fireworks, as it was the first major update since the signing of the Phase One trade deal with China and the outbreak of the coronavirus. But those fireworks did not materialize as USDA made relatively few adjustments, with those adjustments firmly supported by current trade and usage data. For corn, the two moves of note essentially offset each other. Corn exports were lowered 50 million bushels, as export sales continue to struggle. But corn usage for ethanol was raised 50 million bushels, as weekly ethanol production and monthly corn processing data shows increased usage.  With the offsetting moves, the 2019/20 corn ending stocks estimate remains at 1.89 billion bushels and the 2019/20 season-average price estimate holds at $3.85 per bushel. For soybeans, the only shift came from exports. USDA raised soybean exports by 50 million bushels, based on larger year-over-year sales to China. While that lowered the 2019/20 soybean ending stocks estimate to 425 million bushels, the 2019/20 season-average price estimate was lowered to $8.75 per bushel, reflecting the softer prices on the soybean market throughout January.

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Prevented Planting FAQ for 2019

Contributed by Steve Johnson, Extension Farm Management Field Specialist, sdjohns@iastate.edu

Steve JohnsonQuestion: When is prevented planting available?

Answer: Prevented planting must be due to an insured cause of loss that is general in the surrounding area and that prevents other producers from planting acreage with similar characteristics. Failure to plant when other producers in the area were planting will result in denial of the prevented planting claim.

There’s also a 20/20 Rule – a minimum of 20 acres or 20 percent of the unit must be affected. Total acres   of planted and prevented planted cannot exceed the total cropland acres. Prevented planting claims must be filed with your crop insurance agent by June 28   for corn and July 13 for soybeans. Prevented planting acres must be reported on the FSA Form 578 acreage report. That deadline to file that form in Iowa is July 15, 2019.

Question: When is prevented planting not available?

Answer: On ground that is insured through a New Breaking Written Agreement; Conservation Program Reserve land that is in its first year out of CRP; on ground where a pasture or forage crop is in place during the time of planting; when other producers in the area   are able to plant; and on county-based crop insurance area policies such as AYP and ARPI.

Question: How much do I get paid for prevented planting

Flooded field

Answer: When spring conditions prevent a crop from being planted, payment equals 55 percent of the initial revenue guarantee on corn and 60 percent on soybeans.

  • An example payment for corn would look like the following: 190 bushels APH x 80% x $4.00/ bu = $608 initial revenue guarantee x 55% = $334.40/acre PP payment.
  • For soybeans, an example is: 55 bushels APH x 80% x $9.54/bu = $419.76 initial revenue guarantee x 60% = $251.86/acre PP payment.
  • Note that payments for prevented planting use the projected price (new crop futures price average in February).

Question: How are eligible acres for prevented planting determined?

Answer: The insurance company considers each of the insured’s crops in each county. They look at the maximum number of acres reported for insurance and certified in any of the four most recent crop years. The acres must have been planted in one of the last three crop years.

Question: What happens if you are prevented from planting and there are not enough eligible acres for the crop being claimed?

Answer: When the insured runs out of acreage eligibility for one crop, the remaining prevented planting acres will be “rolled” to another crop, such as corn to soybeans.

Question: What happens to my APH – actual production history – if I take prevented planting?

Answer: The insured farmer who receives prevented planting on a crop does not have to report the actual yield for the year. Generally, prevented planting will not impact the APH yield in future years, unless a second crop is planted on prevented planting acres.

Question: What happens if the first crop is prevented planting, but the second crop is planted?

Answer: If the second crop is planted, it MUST be insured if there was insurance for that crop elected on or before March 15, 2019. The second crop must have been planted AFTER June 25 for corn and July 10 for soybeans. If the insured farmer plants a second crop they will still receive 35 percent of the indemnity for the prevented planting crop and pay only 35 percent of the premium.

Planting a second crop on prevented planting ground affects the following year’s APH:

  • First crop – you receive 60 percent of the approved yield (190 bu/A APH X 60% = 114 bu/A).
  • Second crop – actual yields are used for APH.

Question: What will crop insurance adjusters need to do for prevented planting claims?

Answer: Visually inspect all prevented planting acres to determine:

  • Acres are within five percent of what was on the acreage report.
  • Whether the acres are left idle, or whether a cover crop or second crop has been planted.
  • What the cause of loss was, and if it is general to the area.
  • Determine eligible acres.
  • Roll acres to other crops if insured is short of eligible acres for reported prevented planting crop.

Question: What are the deadlines for filing prevented planting in Iowa?

Answer: These dates vary by state, but tend to be three days after the last day of the late planting period.

  • In Iowa, the deadline for filing prevented planting with your crop insurance agent is June 28 for corn and July 13 for soybeans.
  • Acreage reporting deadline is July 15.
  • Prevented planting acres listed on your acreage report (FSA Form 578) should match the information provided to your crop insurance agent in order to qualify for a full indemnity payment.
  • Work with your crop insurance agent well in advance of these dates regarding a prevented planting claim and whether a cover crop or a second crop will be planted.

Question: If I have to leave some of my acres unplanted (prevented planting), will they still count toward my eligibility for enterprise units?

Answer: Only planted acres are considered when determining eligibility for enterprise units. (To qualify for enterprise units on crop insurance policy, at least the smaller of 20 acres or 20 percent of planted acres must be in two or more different township sections.) For example, a farm with 200 acres each in two sections would normally qualify for enterprise units. However, if fewer than 20 acres are planted in one of the sections, the farm would no longer qualify. Possible increases in crop insurance premiums due to a change in unit designation should be considered when deciding whether or not to file a prevented planting claim on some acres.

Question: If I take prevented planting on some of my fields and plant a cover crop, when can I harvest or graze the cover crop?

Answer: If you plant any kind of cover crop and expect to receive a crop insurance indemnity payment for prevented planting, you cannot harvest or graze those acres until after November 1 (September 1 for 2019 crop only, RMA announcement).

ISU resources for more information

More details can be found in the ISU Extension and Outreach Ag Decision Maker publication, Delayed and Prevented Planting Provisions. An electronic decision spreadsheet is also available to help analyze alternative actions. Producers should communicate with their crop insurance agent before making decisions about replanting or abandoning acres.

More resources on Recovering from Disasters are also available from ISU Extension and Outreach.

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Despite Weather Issues, Yield Estimates Better Than Expected (8/10/17)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Chad Hart imageThe first official tour of the nation’s fields this summer resulted in better crop yield and production estimates than the market was expecting. The national corn yield estimate came in at 169.5 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from trend, but that was still a couple of bushels above trade expectations. If realized that points to a 14.15 billion bushel corn crop, which would be the 3rd largest ever, continuing a string of large corn crops. The soybean yield estimate was 49.4 bushels per acre. That is 1.4 bushels above trend and sets up this year’s crop to exceed last year’s. So bushels and bins would continue to overflow with these estimates.

On the demand side, news was mixed. Soybean export projections were raised 75 million bushels, but domestic soybean crush was lowered by 10 million. Corn feed usage and exports were reduced by 25 million bushels each. Combined, the corn adjustments shrank 2017/18 ending stock projections by 52 million, but stocks are still projected above 2.25 billion bushels. For soybeans, ending stock projections rose by 15 million bushels, to 475 million. For prices, USDA held their price range for corn, leaving the midpoint at $3.30 per bushel. While for soybeans, the price range tightened a bit, losing a bit more than the high end than the low, with the midpoint now at $9.30 per bushel.

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