September’s USDA WASDE Summary

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Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

For corn, national yield was set back to 178.5 bushels per acre, down 3.3 bushels per acre and even with USDA’s earlier trend. With the downward adjustment in harvested area, that subtracts 378 million bushels from production, lowering total production to 14.9 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 191 bu/ac (down 11 bu/ac). Illinois was set at 203 bu/ac, down 4 bu/ac. Minnesota was set at 200 bu/ac, up 3 bu/ac. Indiana was set at 186 bu/ac, down 2 bu/ac. On the demand side, exports were lowered 30 million bushels on old crop, but raised 100 million bushels on new crop. Feed and residual was lowered 100 million bushels as well, but the change here is more related to the thought that smaller crop, smaller losses than reduced feed consumption. And ethanol was lowered 5 million bushels for old crop and 100 million bushels for new crop, on the continued drag in fuel usage. The result is 2020/21 ending stocks declined by 253 million and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate rose 40 cents, to $3.50 per bushel.

For soybeans, national yield was set at 51.9 bu/ac, down 1.4 bu/ac from last month. That subtracts 112 million bushels from production, lowering total production to 4.313 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 54 bu/ac, down 4 bu/ac. Illinois was set at 62 bu/ac, down 2 bu/ac. Minnesota was set at 52 bu/ac, up 1 bu/ac. Indiana was set at 60 bu/ac, down 1 bu/ac. On the demand side, no adjustments to new crop. Old crop crush was raised 10 million and old crop exports were raised 30 million. Like with corn, soybean 2020/21 ending stocks fell by 150 million bushels and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate rose 90 cents, to $9.25 per bushel.

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August’s USDA WASDE Summary

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Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

For corn, national yield was set at 181.8 bu/ac, up 3.3 bu/ac from trend. That adds 278 million bushels to production, raising total production to 15.278 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 202 bu/ac (again, based on Aug. 1 conditions, up 2% from 2019), but the larger improvements in yields were to our north and east. Illinois was set at 207 bu/ac, up 14.4% from last year. Minnesota was set at 197 bu/ac, up 13.9% from last year. Indiana was set at 188 bu/ac, up 11.2% from 2019. On the demand side, exports were increased 20 million bushels on old crop and 75 million bushels on new crop. The weakening of the dollar, the lower prices, and advance export sales are all supporting these changes. Feed and residual was raised 75 million bushels as well, but the change here is more related to the thought that there are larger crop losses (residual use) for a larger crop than increased feed consumption. So usage went up 170 million, but supply grew by 278 million, so 2020/21 ending stocks rose by 108 million and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate dropped a quarter, to $3.10 per bushel.

For soybeans, national yield was set at 53.3 bu/ac, up 3.5 bu/ac from trend.  That adds 295 million bushels to production, raising total production to 4.425 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 58 bu/ac (again, based on Aug. 1 conditions, up 5.5% from last year), but the larger improvements in yields were to our north and east. Illinois was set at 64 bu/ac, up 18.5% from last year. Minnesota was set at 51 bu/ac, up 15.9% from last year.  Indiana was set at 61 bu/ac, up 19.6% from 2019. On the demand side, exports were increased 75 million bushels on new crop. The weakening of the dollar, the lower prices, and advance export sales are all supporting these changes.  Crush was raised 20 million bushels and seed and residual usage went up 5 million bushels. Like with corn, soybean supplies grew more than soybean usage, so 2020/21 ending stocks rose by 185 million bushels (to 610 million bushels) and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate dropped 15 cents, to $8.35 per bushel.

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April’s USDA WASDE and Export Sales reports

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

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In the reports released today, usage declined, but by less than the trade expected, so futures moved slightly higher with the release of the report. For corn, feed usage was increased by 150 million bushels.  This is due to corn directly replacing part of the loss of distillers grains as ethanol plants close and distillers disappears. Ethanol usage of corn declined by a staggering 375 million bushels. At least eight ethanol plants that have idled, with many more slowing production. The weekly fuel report from the Energy Information Administration showed a roughly 40% cut in ethanol production over the past two weeks. Add in a couple of other minor adjustments and ending stock projections rose 200 million bushels, putting 2019/20 ending stocks at just shy of 2.1 billion bushels. USDA lowered its 2019/20 marketing year price estimate 20 cents, to $3.60 per bushel.

For soybeans, crush was raised 20 million bushels, but exports were lowered 50 million. The increased crush is to create more soybean meal (again, replacing distillers grains). Export pace, while improving, has been well below what was needed to reach USDA’s original export estimate. Factor in a 25 million bushel drop in seed and residual (mainly an adjustment to the planted acreage number), and 2019/20 ending stocks rose 55 million bushels to 480 million in total. The 2019/20 marketing year average price estimate was lowered 5 cents to $8.65 per bushel.

While the WASDE report did not reflect positive news from exports. The weekly Export Sales report did show higher than expected corn sales, along with soybean sales that were within expectations, but at the higher end. China has been a pleasant surprise in the corn market (up 88% for the year). The Asian markets, outside of China, have been improving for soybeans.

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COVID-19 Resources for Agriculture

While in-person events remain on hold, ISU Extension and Outreach, including Ag Decision Maker, remains committed to serving Iowans. A few resources are included below, and more will be added as needed

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February’s WASDE Report Had Few Crop Demand Adjustments (2/11/20)

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Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

February’s WASDE report had the potential for some fireworks, as it was the first major update since the signing of the Phase One trade deal with China and the outbreak of the coronavirus. But those fireworks did not materialize as USDA made relatively few adjustments, with those adjustments firmly supported by current trade and usage data. For corn, the two moves of note essentially offset each other. Corn exports were lowered 50 million bushels, as export sales continue to struggle. But corn usage for ethanol was raised 50 million bushels, as weekly ethanol production and monthly corn processing data shows increased usage.  With the offsetting moves, the 2019/20 corn ending stocks estimate remains at 1.89 billion bushels and the 2019/20 season-average price estimate holds at $3.85 per bushel. For soybeans, the only shift came from exports. USDA raised soybean exports by 50 million bushels, based on larger year-over-year sales to China. While that lowered the 2019/20 soybean ending stocks estimate to 425 million bushels, the 2019/20 season-average price estimate was lowered to $8.75 per bushel, reflecting the softer prices on the soybean market throughout January.

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