AgDM April: Preparations for the upcoming crop year

With the calendar shift into April, farmers are gearing up for planting. USDA has provided four major reports that outline crop supplies and demand estimates for both the 2023 and 2024 crops. With the March and April World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, USDA has provided the markets an update on the shifting set of crop usage for the 2023 crops. With the March releases of the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports, USDA revealed the sizable crop stocks remaining in farmer hands as we go into planting and the differences between farmers’ planting intentions and USDA’s early projections on crop acreage. Read the full article by Dr. Chad Hart for a summary of how these reports have adjusted the 2024 outlook.

Ag Decision Maker

An agricultural economics and business website.

Shifts in global competition

Over the past several months, the corn and soybean markets have been fixated on the potential production coming from South America. As our harvest was wrapping up last fall, the chatter about the upcoming South American crops began. And that speculation continues today, as the release of the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was more anticipated for its adjustments to global supplies than its shifts in domestic supply and demand. The global markets have expanded dramatically over the couple of decades. Production and consumption have both increased at rates faster than population, and corn and soybean trade has more than doubled since 2000. Much of that growth has occurred in South America.

Read the full article by Dr. Chad Hart in the March Ag Decision Maker newsletter.

Ag Decision Maker

An agricultural economics and business website.

March Ag Decision Maker Updates

Newsletter (PDF)

New Census of Agriculture reveals more farms, more farmers in Iowa
Profitability of winter cereal rye in integrated crop-livestock systems
Internal and external uses compete for hay and grazing land
Shifts in global competition

Information Files

Crops — Costs & Returns

Crops — Machinery

Livestock — Costs & Returns

Whole Farm — Leasing

Ag Decision Maker

An agricultural economics and business website.

Ag Decision Maker updates – January 2024

Newsletter Articles

Newsletter thumbnail

“Would You Rather” pork market edition

Another strong production year

Keys to understanding cattle market report lingo

Information Files, Decision Tools, and Video

Crops — Costs & Returns

Crops — Storage & Markets

Crops — Outlook

Livestock — Outlook & Prices

Whole Farm — Costs & Returns

Whole Farm — Human Resources

Ag Decision Maker

An agricultural economics and business website.

Ag Market Outlook, January 15, 2024 with Chad Hart, Iowa State University Extension Economist

The January report is usually a big one, as it contains the “final” estimates for the 2023 crops. Beyond that, this report is also the one where they adjust the 2018-2022 data based on the Census of Agriculture. There was a lot going on, with the punchline being, USDA found even bigger crops and stocks, pressuring the markets down.

For 2023 corn, planted and harvested acreage was reduced, but the national average yield was increased by 2.4 bushels per acre, leading to a 108 million bushel increase in production. Feed and residual use was boosted by 25 million bushels, and there was a 50 million bushel increase in ethanol. Putting everything together, 2023-24 ending stocks increased by 31 million bushels, approaching 2.2 billion bushels. USDA lowered its 2023-24 season average price by five cents to $4.80 per bushel.

For 2023 soybeans, it was a similar tale: acreage down, yield up (0.7 bushels). Production increased by 36 million bushels with minimal changes were made to usage. So 2023-24 ending stocks moved up 35 million bushels (to 280 million) and USDA lowered its 2023-24 season average price to $12.75 per bushel (down 15 cents).

Ag Decision Maker

An agricultural economics and business website.

Ag Decision Maker text image

Archives