February’s WASDE Report Had Few Crop Demand Adjustments (2/11/20)

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Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

February’s WASDE report had the potential for some fireworks, as it was the first major update since the signing of the Phase One trade deal with China and the outbreak of the coronavirus. But those fireworks did not materialize as USDA made relatively few adjustments, with those adjustments firmly supported by current trade and usage data. For corn, the two moves of note essentially offset each other. Corn exports were lowered 50 million bushels, as export sales continue to struggle. But corn usage for ethanol was raised 50 million bushels, as weekly ethanol production and monthly corn processing data shows increased usage.  With the offsetting moves, the 2019/20 corn ending stocks estimate remains at 1.89 billion bushels and the 2019/20 season-average price estimate holds at $3.85 per bushel. For soybeans, the only shift came from exports. USDA raised soybean exports by 50 million bushels, based on larger year-over-year sales to China. While that lowered the 2019/20 soybean ending stocks estimate to 425 million bushels, the 2019/20 season-average price estimate was lowered to $8.75 per bushel, reflecting the softer prices on the soybean market throughout January.

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Yield Adjustments, but Still Record Crops (10/12/16)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Hart_Chad-thumbUSDA updated its projections for the 2016 corn and soybean crops. And while the national corn yield is reduced, the national soybean yield is increased and record production is still on the books for both crops. The national corn yield is set at 173.4 bushels per acre, down a bushel from last month, but still 2.4 bushels above the previous record set in 2014. With the yield this high, a 15 billion bushel corn crop is projected to be heading in from the fields during harvest. Combined with the 1.7 billion bushel carryover, total corn supplies for the 2016/17 marketing year stand at 16.85 billion bushels. Corn usage is also projected at record levels, but demand has not been able and is not projected to keep up with the supply surge. Corn export projections are raised 50 million bushels, bringing total usage up to a record 14.5 billion bushels. The end result is an ending stock level roughly 600 million bushels higher than we had for the 2015/16 marketing year, but slightly lower than last month’s estimate. That slight tightening of ending stocks gave USDA a little room to raise their projected price range by 5 cents per bushel, with the midpoint now at $3.25 per bushel.

The national soybean yield is projected at 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from last month and well above the previous record. With production approaching 4.3 billion bushels, the soybean market has never had more beans to work with. So again, it’s a story of record supplies and demand, but demand growth lags behind supply growth. Soybean export projections are raised 40 million bushels, bringing total usage to 4.1 billion bushels. But ending stocks are projected to double and price projections are held steady, with the midpoint of the season-average farm price range set at $9.05 per bushel.

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Stocks Inline with Expectations (9/30/16)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Hart_Chad-thumbStock levels for corn and soybeans were up in the most recent USDA report, but the trade expected that as we move into the next marketing year. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.74 billion bushels, up just 6 million bushels from last year. While total corn stocks are about the same, farmers are holding more back on the farm than they did last year. Strong demand from the ethanol and export sectors boosted June-August corn disappearance by 9 percent. For soybeans, we entered the 2016/17 marketing year with 197 million bushels in storage. That’s 3 percent above last year’s level. And reversing the pattern for corn, less soybeans are being held by farmers on the farm. Summer crush and export demand were firm as well, with June-August soybean disappearance increasing by 55 percent. So the stocks report confirmed strong demand for corn and soybeans, but stocks still grew year-over-year.

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April Demand Update (4/12/16)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Hart_Chad-thumbThe World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates update for April contained some modest changes for the crop balance sheets. For U.S. soybeans, the only changes were a 15 million bushel bump in export demand and a slight decline in seed demand, based on last month’s Prospective Plantings report. Projected soybean ending stocks were lowered to 445 million bushels, but the midpoint of the 2015/16 season-average price range remains steady at $8.75 per bushel. For U.S. corn, the adjustments were mixed. Feed demand was reduced 50 million bushels, based on the quarterly disappearance pattern from the Grain Stocks report. Corn usage for ethanol was increased 25 million bushels as ethanol production has held near record levels over the 1st three months of the calendar year. Thus, corn ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels and the midpoint of the 2015/16 season-average price range fell 5 cents to $3.55 per bushel.

World corn production for 2015/16 was increased by 3 million metric tons, with 1 million of that going to increased imports for Mexico and Southeast Asia and 2 million projected to be held in stock. China’s feed usage of corn is projected to rise by 2 million metric tons, but that increase is expected to be met by drawing down existing internal stocks. World soybean production for 2015/16 was lowered slightly as declines in Chinese and Indian production offset an increase from Argentina. Global soybean trade was raised, based on stronger exports to China, Japan, and Mexico.

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Estimating Crop Insurance Indemnity Payments

Contributed by Steve Johnson, Extension Farm Management Field Specialist, sdjohns@iastate.edu.

Johnson_Steve_smHarvest prices determined in October will have a large impact on the size of the potential crop insurance indemnity payments for corn and soybeans. Current futures prices suggest that crop insurance revenue policies on corn will make indemnity payments on some farms, particularly those that purchased revenue policies at high coverage levels and are experiencing yields below their Actual Production History (APH). In Iowa, there’s a better chance for insurance indemnity payments on corn than there is for soybeans this fall. It would likely take a significant drop in soybean yields to likely trigger such a payment.

Crop Insurance Indemnity Payments

The 2013 projected price for corn is $5.65 per bushel. That’s the average settlement price of the December Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures contract during February. This projected price is used to set crop insurance guarantees and the premium paid by farmers. The harvest price is used to calculate revenue on which crop insurance indemnity payments are based. The harvest price for corn equals the average of settlement prices of the December CME corn futures contract during October. Settlement prices during the first 10 days of October suggest a harvest price of $4.40 per bushel. The final harvest price can vary before the end of the month, but this number provides a good starting point for evaluating corn payments.

An estimate of a $4.40 harvest price is 78% of the $5.65 projected price ($4.40 harvest price divided by $5.65 projected price = 78%). If actual yield equals the guarantee yield on revenue polices of an 80% level or greater coverage levels, it will likely trigger an indemnity payment. So an actual yield that falls 22% or more below the APH should command attention by the farmer. They will need to notify their crop insurance agent and make sure good records can verify this actual yield.

The projected price for soybeans is $12.87 per bushel. That’s the average settlement price of the November CME soybean futures contract during February. The first 10 days of settlement prices during October for November soybean futures suggest a harvest price of $12.75 per bushel. Similar to corn, the soybean harvest price is not yet known, but $12.75 is a useful starting point for evaluating a potential insurance indemnity payment on soybeans.

A $12.75 harvest price is 99% of the $12.87 projected price. Because 99% is above coverage levels offered by crop insurance revenue products, a yield loss has to occur before crop insurance indemnity payments would be made. Since corn and soybean yields will vary across farms and most farmers use enterprise unit coverage, crop insurance indemnity payments will also vary. A farmer should contact their crop insurance agent regarding the actual yield records necessary for an indemnity claim, updating their APH with this year’s harvest numbers or making their 2013 premium payment.

For farm management information and analysis visit Ag Decision Maker at www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm; ISU farm management specialist Steve Johnson’s site is at www.extension.iastate.edu/polk/farm-management.

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