Ag Market Outlook, November 13, 2023 with Chad Hart

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For 2023 corn, USDA raised its yield estimate by 1.9 bushels per acre (to 174.9 bushels per acre; Iowa’s estimate came in at 200, up a bushel). The yield change pushed production up by 170 million bushels.  Feed usage was increased by 50 million bushels, as were exports, along with a 25 million bushel bump for ethanol. Thus, 2023-24 ending stocks increased by only 45 million bushels. Given the larger stocks, USDA decreased its 2023-24 season average price to $4.85 per bushel (down 10 cents).

For 2023 soybeans, USDA raised its yield estimate by 0.3 bushels per acre (to 49.9 bushels per acre; Iowa’s estimate remains at 58). The soybean production estimate rose by 25 million bushels. Seed and residual usage was decreased by less than 1 million bushels. There were no other changes to soy usage. So 2023-24 ending stocks increased by 25 million bushels to 245 million. USDA maintained its 2023-24 season average price at $12.90 per bushel.

For the 2024 crops, USDA has lower corn planting, higher soy planting, continuing struggles to boost usage leading to higher ending stocks, and lower prices across the board.

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April Demand Update (4/12/16)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Hart_Chad-thumbThe World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates update for April contained some modest changes for the crop balance sheets. For U.S. soybeans, the only changes were a 15 million bushel bump in export demand and a slight decline in seed demand, based on last month’s Prospective Plantings report. Projected soybean ending stocks were lowered to 445 million bushels, but the midpoint of the 2015/16 season-average price range remains steady at $8.75 per bushel. For U.S. corn, the adjustments were mixed. Feed demand was reduced 50 million bushels, based on the quarterly disappearance pattern from the Grain Stocks report. Corn usage for ethanol was increased 25 million bushels as ethanol production has held near record levels over the 1st three months of the calendar year. Thus, corn ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels and the midpoint of the 2015/16 season-average price range fell 5 cents to $3.55 per bushel.

World corn production for 2015/16 was increased by 3 million metric tons, with 1 million of that going to increased imports for Mexico and Southeast Asia and 2 million projected to be held in stock. China’s feed usage of corn is projected to rise by 2 million metric tons, but that increase is expected to be met by drawing down existing internal stocks. World soybean production for 2015/16 was lowered slightly as declines in Chinese and Indian production offset an increase from Argentina. Global soybean trade was raised, based on stronger exports to China, Japan, and Mexico.

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Plans for a Whole Lot of Corn (3/31/16)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Hart_Chad-thumbThe end of March is an active time for the crop markets and USDA. It’s when we get our first look at the 2016 crop year from the producers’ perspective with the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings report. We also receive an update on demand via USDA’s Grain Stocks report. And as we typically see, these reports contained a few surprises to mull over as planting approaches, mainly for new crop prospects. Starting with the stocks/demand picture, the trade estimates going into the stocks report were fairly close to the USDA numbers. As of March 1, 7.81 billion bushels of corn were being held in storage. That’s 1% higher than last year at this time. Quarterly corn disappearance for the December-February time frame was 3.43 billion bushels, slightly lower than last year. Overall corn demand and usage has been relatively stable. Soybean stocks came in at 1.5 billion bushels, up 15% from last year. That is the highest soybean stock number for March since the 2006/07 crop. Quarterly soybean disappearance for the December-February time frame was 1.18 billion bushels, 1% lower than last year.  So the build-up of soybean stocks has more to do with supply than demand. In total, old crop usage turned up to be in-line with expectations.

That’s not the case with plantings and the potential for new crop production. The biggest discrepancies between trade expectations and the planting report were for corn and wheat. Projected corn plantings came in at 93.6 million acres. The trade expectation was roughly 90 million. So prospective corn plantings are 3.6 million above expectations and 5.6 million above last year. Meanwhile, projected wheat area dropped to 49.6 million acres, roughly 2 million below expectations and 5 million below last year. Soybean planted area was also down to 82.2 million acres, which was 800,000 less than expectations and 450,000 below last year. Looking at specific state projections, the boost in corn area is coming mostly from the Great Plains and Corn Belt. The largest moves are in Kansas and North Dakota, adding 650,000 acres each, as traditional wheat area heads to corn production. Illinois and Iowa are adding 400,000 corn acres each this year. Out of the 48 states listed in the corn table, only 7 are projected to have fewer corn acres than last year, with the largest reduction being 20,000 acres. The soybean planting story hinges mainly on Missouri. Missouri farmers indicated they would plant nearly one million more acres of soybeans this year, following the planting issues they had last year. Illinois and North Dakota are projected to gain significant soybean area as well.  However, many states (including Iowa) are projected to lower soybean plantings. Iowa and 9 other states are set to reduce soybean plantings by at least 100,000 acres each. Hence, despite the strong surge in area from Missouri, the national soybean planting area is projected to decline.

Given trend yields of 168 bushels per acre for corn and 46.7 bushels per acre for soybeans, the projected acreage points to another round of massive crops. Corn production would reach 14.38 billion bushels, which would be another record corn crop. Soybean production would approach 3.8 billion bushels, which would be the 3rd largest soybean crop in history. And for markets already dealing with large supplies, these prospective plantings do not help. So the markets will be looking for Mother Nature to slow the supply train down.

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Big Crops Get Bigger (11/10/15)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Hart_Chad-thumbThe November update from USDA found bigger corn and soybean crops than previously estimated. The national corn yield was raised to 169.3 bushels per acre, which added roughly 100 million bushels to estimated production. State-level yield estimates were higher in the northern and western Corn Belt, but lower to the south and east. The Iowa corn yield was set at 189 bushels per acre, which would be a record. The national soybean yield was also increased significantly, to 48.3 bushels per acre, adding again nearly 100 million bushels to the national total. The yield increases were more uniform across the country for soybeans, but Iowa is again projected to see a record yield for soybeans as well.

The supply strength, however, was coupled with some demand weakness. For corn, export and ethanol demand was reduced by a combined 125 million bushels. While feed demand increased 25 million bushels, the growth was not enough to offset the losses. For soybeans, USDA raised both crush and export demand from previous estimates, but the export number remains well below last year’s level. Ending stocks grew for both crops. Corn ending stocks were projected at 1.76 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks were set at 465 million bushels. And the season-average prices estimates were lowered as well. The midpoints on the price ranges now set at $3.65 per bushel for corn (down 15 cents) and $8.90 per bushel for soybeans (down 25 cents).

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Acreage Adjustment (10/9/15)

Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest USDA reports.

Hart_Chad-thumbIt took until the October reports, but USDA adjusted its crop acreage estimates for corn and soybeans down. Corn area was reduced by a half of a million acres. Soybeans lost 1.1 million acres. These moves more than offset the slight yield bump USDA projected. The national corn yield estimate was raised a half of a bushel to 168 bushels per acre. The national soybean yield estimate increased a tenth of a bushel to 47.2 bushels per acre. National corn production was lowered by 30 million bushels; national soybean production was reduced by 47 million bushels.

There were no adjustments made to new crop corn demand. So the drop in production led to a slight increase in USDA’s projection for the marketing year average price. The midpoint of their price range now sits at $3.80 per bushel, up 5 cents from last month. New crop soybean demand took a hit though. While domestic crush increased 10 million bushels, soybean exports were dropped by 50 million bushels. And USDA held firm on their soybean marketing year price range, with the midpoint remaining at $9.15 per bushel.

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