September’s USDA WASDE Summary

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Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

For corn, national yield was set back to 178.5 bushels per acre, down 3.3 bushels per acre and even with USDA’s earlier trend. With the downward adjustment in harvested area, that subtracts 378 million bushels from production, lowering total production to 14.9 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 191 bu/ac (down 11 bu/ac). Illinois was set at 203 bu/ac, down 4 bu/ac. Minnesota was set at 200 bu/ac, up 3 bu/ac. Indiana was set at 186 bu/ac, down 2 bu/ac. On the demand side, exports were lowered 30 million bushels on old crop, but raised 100 million bushels on new crop. Feed and residual was lowered 100 million bushels as well, but the change here is more related to the thought that smaller crop, smaller losses than reduced feed consumption. And ethanol was lowered 5 million bushels for old crop and 100 million bushels for new crop, on the continued drag in fuel usage. The result is 2020/21 ending stocks declined by 253 million and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate rose 40 cents, to $3.50 per bushel.

For soybeans, national yield was set at 51.9 bu/ac, down 1.4 bu/ac from last month. That subtracts 112 million bushels from production, lowering total production to 4.313 billion bushels. Iowa was estimated at 54 bu/ac, down 4 bu/ac. Illinois was set at 62 bu/ac, down 2 bu/ac. Minnesota was set at 52 bu/ac, up 1 bu/ac. Indiana was set at 60 bu/ac, down 1 bu/ac. On the demand side, no adjustments to new crop. Old crop crush was raised 10 million and old crop exports were raised 30 million. Like with corn, soybean 2020/21 ending stocks fell by 150 million bushels and the 2020/21 season-average price estimate rose 90 cents, to $9.25 per bushel.

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February’s WASDE Report Had Few Crop Demand Adjustments (2/11/20)

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Chad Hart, ISU Extension Grain Marketing Economist, provides a summary of the latest WASDE report.

February’s WASDE report had the potential for some fireworks, as it was the first major update since the signing of the Phase One trade deal with China and the outbreak of the coronavirus. But those fireworks did not materialize as USDA made relatively few adjustments, with those adjustments firmly supported by current trade and usage data. For corn, the two moves of note essentially offset each other. Corn exports were lowered 50 million bushels, as export sales continue to struggle. But corn usage for ethanol was raised 50 million bushels, as weekly ethanol production and monthly corn processing data shows increased usage.  With the offsetting moves, the 2019/20 corn ending stocks estimate remains at 1.89 billion bushels and the 2019/20 season-average price estimate holds at $3.85 per bushel. For soybeans, the only shift came from exports. USDA raised soybean exports by 50 million bushels, based on larger year-over-year sales to China. While that lowered the 2019/20 soybean ending stocks estimate to 425 million bushels, the 2019/20 season-average price estimate was lowered to $8.75 per bushel, reflecting the softer prices on the soybean market throughout January.

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