The milk production forecast for 2017 and 2018 was lowered from the previous month on an expected slower pace of growth in milk per cow and slightly lower cow numbers. For 2017, the fat basis import forecast is lowered on recent trade data and the expectation of slower cheese imports in the fourth quarter; the forecast is raised for 2018 on higher expected shipments of whole milk powder and butter.
The 2017 skim-solids basis import forecast is reduced on lower-than-expected imports of milk protein concentrates and a number of other dairy products. This weakness is expected to carry over into 2018, supporting a lower import forecast. Fat basis exports are reduced for both 2017 and 2018 on lower butter and cheese exports. Skim-solids basis export forecasts are also reduced for both 2017 and 2018 on lower expected shipments of skim milk powder and whey products. For 2017, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are lowered from the previous month, but the price forecast for cheese is raised. For 2018, all dairy product prices are lowered on large supplies and global competition. The 2017 Class III price is unchanged from last month as the decline in whey is offset by the higher cheese price. The Class IV price forecast is reduced from the previous month on lower forecast butter and NDM prices. For 2018 both the Class III and Class IV prices are lowered due to lower forecast product prices. The 2017 all milk price forecast is reduced to $17.65 to $17.75 per cwt and the 2018 price is lowered to $16.90 to $17.80 per cwt.
The forecast for 2017 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef, pork, and turkey production more than offsets higher broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle in the fourth quarter and lighter carcass weights.
Corn production is forecast at 14.578 billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based on a larger crop. Exports are raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects. With supply rising faster than use, corn ending stocks are up 147 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel.
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