The milk production forecast is lowered for 2017 on slower growth in milk per cow. The slower growth in milk per cow is expected to carry into 2018 and combined with an expected slower rate of growth in cow numbers, the 2018 milk production forecast is lowered- that was the good news.
The 2017 and 2018 fat basis import and export forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. On a skim-solids basis, the 2017 and 2018 export forecasts are raised on higher expected whey exports. No changes are made to 2017 and 2018 skim-solids basis import forecasts. Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk are lowered for 2017 on current price weakness and slower demand. The 2017 whey price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint. All dairy product price forecasts are reduced for 2018 on pressure from large stocks and slower expected demand. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lowered for 2017 and 2018, reflecting the lower product prices. All milk prices are forecast lower at $17.60 to $17.70 per cwt for 2017and $16.65 to $17.45 per cwt for 2018.
This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased corn used to produce ethanol and reduced ending stocks. With no other use changes, ending stocks are down 50 million bushels from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged this month at a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel but the range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $2.85 to $3.55 per bushel.
Reduced soybean oil exports and non-ester domestic use are offsetting, leaving projected ending stocks unchanged at 1.62 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2017/18 is narrowed to $8.60 to $10.00 per bushel. The soybean meal and soybean oil price ranges are unchanged at $295 to $335 per short ton and 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, respectively.
The cattle price forecast for 2017 is lowered on recent prices, but the 2018 cattle price forecast is unchanged from the previous month.