The milk production forecast for 2018 is lowered from last month on expectations of slower growth in milk per cow. The 2018 fat basis export and import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is raised slightly while the export forecast is raised on strong global demand for skim milk powder, lactose, and whey products. The 2017 production, trade, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect December data.
Annual product price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered from the previous month as demand remains relatively weak. No changes are made to the annual prices for NDM and whey.
The Class III price is lowered on the cheese price projection while the Class IV price is down on a lower butter price forecast. The all milk price is forecast is reduced to $15.70 to $16.40 per cwt.
This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased exports and reduced stocks. Exports are raised 125 million bushels, reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina and Ukraine. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 125 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.30 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.
For 2018, beef exports are raised as demand from several key trading partners is expected to remain robust; no change is made to the beef import forecast.
Fed-cattle prices for the first half of 2018 are raised from last month on continued demand strength.