World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Predict Milk Production Up for 2018

The milk production forecast for 2018 is raised from last month on more rapid growth in milk per cow in the first half of the year in the March WASDE report.

The 2018 imports on a fat and skim-solids basis are reduced on slower sales of a number of processed dairy products. Exports on fat basis are raised on increased cheese sales and exports on a skim-solids basis are raised on stronger sales of both cheese and whey products. The supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions to 2016 and 2017 milk production and 2017 storage data. Annual product price forecasts for cheese and butter are raised from the previous month as recent prices have increased. However, continued large supplies of nonfat dry milk (NDM) are expected to pressure NDM prices, and the forecast is reduced. No change is made to the annual whey price forecast. The Class III price is raised on the cheese price projection, while the Class IV price is down, as the lower NDM price more than offsets a higher butter price forecast. The all milk price is forecast at $15.75 to $16.35 per cwt, unchanged at the midpoint.

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger exports and increased corn used to produce ethanol. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is narrowed 10 cents on the low end to $3.15 to $3.55 per bushel, with the midpoint up 5 cents to $3.35 per bushel.

The 2018 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is fractionally lower than last month, as lower beef production more than offsets higher pork and turkey production. Cattle and hog prices for the first quarter of 2018 are raised from last month on current price movements.

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