Due to recent declines in milk cow numbers, relatively high slaughter levels, and higher expected feed prices, milk production forecasts have been lowered for 2019 and 2020 in the USDA June World Agricultural Outlook. Dairy exports were relatively weak in April, and export forecasts have been lowered for both 2019 and 2020. The all-milk price forecast for 2019 is $18.00 per cwt, 5 cents lower than last month’s forecast. The all-milk price forecast for 2020 is $18.90 per cwt, 10 cents higher than last month’s forecast.
The June information estimates total U.S. dairy herd at 9.335 million cows for 2019 and projects 2020 at 9.355 million cows. The 2019 total production is estimated at 218.2 billion pounds and 2020 is projected at 221.9 billion pounds.
For both milk fat and skim solids, exports and domestic commercial use are expected to increase in 2020 over 2019. Compared to 2018 commercial skim stocks are project to fall while milk fat commercial stock are expected remain the same each year. Interestingly, while imports of skim solids are projected to fall, imports of milk fat are expected to increase each year.
The complete June report is available at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=93326