On Friday the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates lowered Milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from December on slower expected growth in milk per cow.
The 2019 fat basis import forecast is unchanged from last month, but the 2020 import forecast is reduced on lower expected cheese and butterfat imports. The fat basis export forecast for 2019 and 2020 is raised on recent trade data and strong sales of cheese and other dairy-containing products. On a skim solids basis, the 2019 and 2020 import forecasts are unchanged. Skim-solids basis export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised on strong global demand for nonfat dry milk (NDM).
Dairy product price estimates for 2019 include December price data. For 2020, cheese, butter, and whey price forecasts are reduced on demand weakness and relatively high stocks. The NDM price forecast is raised from December on continued strength in demand from export markets. The Class III price and Class IV price are lowered from the previous month. The 2019 all milk estimate is unchanged at $18.60, but the 2020 all milk price forecast is reduced to $19.25 per cwt.