The May 12 WASDE report showed 2020 milk production forecast raised from the previous month primarily on higher-than expected cow numbers at 222.2 Billion pounds.
The fat basis export forecast is raised from the previous month on recent trade data and stronger expected global demand. The fat basis import forecast is also raised from last month on stronger expected imports of cheese. On a skim-solids basis, the export forecast for 2020 is raised on stronger global import demand for skim milk powder, whey products, and a number of dairy products, while the import forecast is raised on increased imports of cheese and milk protein products. Cheese and whey prices are raised from the previous month resulting in a higher Class III price forecast. Butter and NDM prices are lowered from last month, resulting in a lower Class IV price forecast. The 2020 all milk price is forecast at $14.55 per cwt.
Milk production for 2021 is forecast higher than 2020 on stronger expected growth in milk per cow, despite a slightly smaller dairy cow herd. Commercial exports on a fat basis are about the same as 2020 while skim-solids basis exports are forecast higher than 2020 on relatively firm demand. Imports on both a fat basis and skim-solid basis are forecast above 2020. With improved domestic and export demand, all dairy products prices are forecast higher in 2021. Both Class III and Class IV prices are forecast higher on stronger product prices. The 2021 all milk price is forecast higher at $15.00 per cwt.
The full report is available here