WASDE Lowers 2021 All-milk price Forecast

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released on February 9.

The 2020 milk production, trade, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2021, the milk production forecast is raised from last month, primarily on higher dairy cow numbers. The 2021 fat basis import forecast is raised on higher expected imports of cheese and butterfat products, while exports are raised on higher shipments of butterfat. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is unchanged while the export forecast is raised, reflecting expectations of strong international demand.

Annual product price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered from the previous month on current prices, increased production, and larger stocks. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts are raised from last month on firm demand.

The Class III price is reduced on the lower cheese price forecast and the Class IV price is also reduced, reflecting a lower butter price forecast. The 2021 all milk price forecast is reduced to $17.15 per cwt.

The entire report is available here.

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