WASDE Projects 2021 All Milk Price at $17.75 per cwt

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates on Tuesday saw corn and soy supply and use mostly unchanged.

The 2020 milk production estimate is adjusted to reflect recent data revisions. For 2021, the milk production forecast is lowered slightly from last month as a higher expected cow inventory is more than offset by slower growth in milk per cow. The 2021 fat basis import forecast is reduced on lower expected imports of butterfat; fat basis exports are raised as higher shipments of butterfat more than offset lower forecast cheese exports.

On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is unchanged due to offsetting changes in imports of a number of dairy products while the export forecast is lowered, reflecting expectations of lower lactose shipments which are partly offset by higher exports of skim/nonfat milk powder.

The annual cheese price forecast is unchanged from last month as weaker prices in the first part of 2021 are offset by improved demand later in the year. Butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey price forecasts are raised from last month with expected improvements in both domestic and export demand.

These higher product prices are reflected in higher Class III and Class IV prices. The 2021 all milk price forecast is raised to $17.75 per cwt.

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