The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates milk production higher on a larger expected cow inventory. Fat basis imports for 2023 are primarily raised on the strength of a number of dairy products during the first quarter. Imports of casein and milk protein concentrates are expected to remain firm, supporting higher skim-solids basis imports through the year. Expectations of increased competition in butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whey markets are reflected in lower forecast exports on both a fat- and a skim-solids basis for 2023.
Cheese and butter prices are raised on recent prices. Nonfat dry milk prices are lowered. Whey prices are raised on recent price observations and stronger expected demand. With the changes in component prices, Class III prices are projected higher, while Class IV prices are projected lower. The all milk price is projected higher at $20.65 per cwt.
Cattle prices for the first quarter are lowered slightly on reported data but raised for all other quarters on continued strength in demand. For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Higher expected placements of cattle during the first half are reflected in higher forecast beef production during the second half.
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.275 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December February quarter. FSI is lowered 10 million bushels reflecting cuts to corn used for
glucose and dextrose and starch. With supply and use falling by the same amount, ending stocks are unchanged at 1.342 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.60 per bushel.