From the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released on July 12, the milk production forecast for 2023 is unchanged from last month. The milk production forecast for
2024 is reduced from last month, based on lower dairy cow inventories and slower growth in milk per cow.
For 2023, exports are reduced on both a fats and skim-solids basis. Fats basis exports are lowered primarily reflecting lower butter and cheese shipments. Skim-solids basis exports reflect lower
exports of whey products as well as a number of other dairy products; however, these declines are partially offset by higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports. For 2024, fat basis exports are reduced as weakness in butter sales is expected to carry into the next year. Skim-solids basis export reductions are largely due to lower expected lactose exports. Imports on a fat basis for 2023 are unchanged with largely offsetting changes for a number of products, but skim-solids imports are lowered on lower milk protein concentrates. For 2024, imports on both a skim-solids basis and a fat basis are lowered slightly.
For 2023, prices of cheese, NDM, and whey are lower than the previous month’s forecast based on continued ample supplies of cheese and competition in international NDM and whey markets. The price of butter is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on weaker cheese and whey prices, and the Class IV price decline reflects lower NDM prices. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $19.55 per cwt.
For 2024, prices of cheese, NDM, and whey are lower than the previous month’s forecast, but the butter price is higher. The Class III milk price is lower than the previous month on the weaker cheese and whey price, but the Class IV price forecast is unchanged as the lower NDM price and higher butter price are offsetting. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $19.10 per cwt.
The complete report is available at: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0723.pdf