The milk production forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered from last month. The cow inventory
is reduced, reflecting the average July 2023 cow number reported in the recent Milk Production
report. The reduction in cow numbers is expected to continue through 2023 and into the first half
of 2024 as returns remain under pressure. For 2023, output-per-cow is forecast to increase at a
lower rate than previously expected on recent data and the expected impact of high temperatures during the summer. However, the forecast of milk per cow for 2024 is unchanged.
Fat basis import forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered, largely driven by recent trade data and
lower expected imports of cheese and butter throughout the forecast period. Skim-solids basis
imports are unchanged for 2023 and 2024. Fat basis export forecasts are unchanged for 2023,
while skim-solids basis export forecasts are lowered on weaker whey exports. For 2024, exports
on a fat basis are lowered on expectations of fewer shipments of butter and fat containing
products and cheese, while exports on a skim-solids basis are reduced, reflecting lower cheese,
and whey and whey products shipments.
For 2023, forecasts for cheese, butter, and whey prices are raised on current price strength, but
nonfat dried milk (NDM) is lowered. Both Class III and Class IV prices are raised, reflecting
changes in their component values. For 2024, price forecasts for cheese, butter and whey are
raised on lowered milk production and continued firm demand. NDM price forecasts are lowered.
The Class III price forecast is raised on higher cheese and whey prices while the Class IV price
forecast is raised as the higher butter price more than offsets the lower NDM price. The 2023 all
milk price forecast is raised to $20.40 per cwt and the 2024 all milk price is raised to $20.30 per
Beef production is reduced on a slower pace of marketings in the third quarter. This decline is only partly offset by higher expected carcass weights in that quarter and higher expected cow slaughter in the third and fourth quarters.
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022/23.
Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up
0.8 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion. With supply rising slightly and use
unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price
received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.