The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released on December 8 saw the milk production forecast for 2023 is lowered from last month due to slower expected growth in milk per cow. Production in 2024 is lowered due to lower milk cow numbers and reduced milk per cow.
The fat basis import forecast for 2023 is raised due to higher imports of cheese. Skim solids imports are lowered due to fewer shipments of milk protein products. The fat basis export forecast is lowered due to lower butter exports. The skim-solids export forecast is raised due to higher whey product shipments which more than offset lower expected nonfat/skim powder. For 2024, the import forecast is raised on a fat basis, but lowered on a skim-solids basis. Fat basis exports are lowered for 2024 on lower expected butter shipments, while a higher skim-solids basis forecast reflects higher nonfat/skim powder and whey product exports.
For 2023, based on recent prices, cheese and butter price forecasts are lowered while the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is raised. The whey price is unchanged. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are both lower on lower cheese and butter prices.
For 2024, the cheese price forecast is lowered, while butter, NDM, and whey prices are raised. The Class III price forecast is lowered due lower cheese prices. The Class IV price forecast is raised due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The all milk price forecast for 2023 is lowered to $20.60. The 2024 all milk price forecast is lowered to $20.25.