Milk Price Forecast Lowered By ERS

The November 15 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook from the USDA Economic Research Service showed September ending stocks indicate that third-quarter cold and dried-egg storage for U.S. animal protein commodities changed compared to 2017 as follows: beef (up almost 3 percent), pork (down nearly 5 percent), lamb (up almost 29 percent), broilers (up more than 17 percent), turkey (down less than 1 percent), eggs (down nearly 15 percent), cheese (up more than 4 percent), and butter (up almost 11 percent).

Continue reading “Milk Price Forecast Lowered By ERS”

Iowa Milk Production Down In October

Milk production in Iowa during October 2018 totaled 432 million pounds, down 1 percent from the previous October according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production report. The average number of milk cows during October, at 220,000 head, was unchanged from last month but 1,000 more than last year. Monthly production per cow averaged 1,965 pounds, down 30 pounds from last October.

Continue reading “Iowa Milk Production Down In October”

WASDE Report Lowers Production and Price Forecast

The milk production forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced from the previous month on lower cow numbers; however, stronger growth in milk per cow is expected to partially offset smaller
dairy cow numbers.
The 2018 fat basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, but is reduced for 2019 on lower imports of milk protein concentrates. Fat basis export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged from last month.

Continue reading “WASDE Report Lowers Production and Price Forecast”

March Production Budgets Show Feed Cost Edging Up

The March 2018 milk production budgets for Iowa and Nebraska compiled by UNL Extension Educator Robert Tigner shows the 20,000 pound March 2018 budget has a negative $1.70 per cwt, 8 cents per cwt worse than February. When calculating net revenue after all variable costs are paid, there is only $0.595 per cwt to pay fixed costs and management. Unfortunately the fixed costs are $1.55 per cwt in the 20,000 pound budget. Feed costs rose by $0.415 per cwt but income was higher by only $0.105 per hundredweight. Corn was 10 cents per bushel higher, soybean meal $24 per ton higher and cottonseed $6.25 per ton higher. On the income side, total income rose due to increased protein and butterfat prices as well as a rise in pounds of butterfat. A slight decline in protein pounds and a big move to a negative PPD, -$0.30, softened the improved component prices effects.

One more comment on this dairy budget series. It is intended to be a sort of index of returns for milk production for the I-29 corridor and much of Iowa. Fixed costs have not been updated since August 2009.

The free stall budget is available Copy of March-dairy budget 2018

The tie stall budget is available Copy of March-dairy budget tie stalls 2018.

WASDE Report Gloomy For Dairy

The April 10 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates showed the milk production forecast for 2018 is unchanged from last month. The 2018 import forecast is reduced slightly on a fat basis, but is unchanged on a skim-solids basis.
Exports on fat basis are unchanged from last month, but skim-solids-basis exports are raised on stronger sales of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder, and lactose.
The annual product price forecast for cheese is unchanged at the midpoint although the range is narrowed. Butter prices are expected to increase more slowly in the second half of the year and the price forecast is reduced. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is reduced slightly on current prices. The annual whey price forecast is lowered on larger supplies and weaker demand.
The Class III price is lowered on the lower whey price while the Class IV price is down on lower NDM and butter price forecasts. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $15.60 to $16.10 per cwt.
The full WASDE report can be found at REPORT

Iowa Milk Production Continues Trend Over 2017 Production

Milk production in Iowa during February 2018 totaled 402 million pounds, up two percent from the previous February according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production report.

Continue reading “Iowa Milk Production Continues Trend Over 2017 Production”

Iowa’s Per Cow Production Up 25 Pounds Over Jan 2017

Iowa Milk Production Up From 2017

Milk production in Iowa during January 2018 totaled 446 million pounds, up 4 percent from the previous January according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production report. The average number of milk cows during January, at 220,000 head, was unchanged from last month but 5,000 more than last year. Monthly production per cow averaged 2,025 pounds, up 25 pounds from last January.

Continue reading “Iowa’s Per Cow Production Up 25 Pounds Over Jan 2017”