The milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2019, the fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on strong demand for imported butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced slightly. The skim-solid basis import forecast for 2019 is raised on higher imports of milk protein concentrates and other dairy products. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is reduced primarily on weaker-than-expected sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM). For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is raised on continued strong import demand for butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on slowing sales of butterfat. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2020 is raised, but the export forecast is lowered on expected continued weak demand for NDM and increased global competition.
Milk production in Iowa during June 2019 totaled 433 million pounds, down less than one percent from the previous June according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production report.
The average number of milk cows during June, at 217,000 head, was the same as last month but down 3,000 from last year. Monthly production per cow averaged 1,995 pounds, up 20 pounds from last June.
In the July 1 Daily Livestock Report the editor’s note that since the beginning of the year the dairy cowherd was contracting while the beef cowherd was up a full 1 percent.
The July 1 cattle inventory will be released by USDA-NASS on July 19, 2019, and the editors estimate the dairy cowherd has continued to contract through the first half of the year but has shown signs of slowing. First quarter slaughter was the largest of any quarter since 1986. The latest USDA-NASS Milk Production report came in with inventory at 9.333 million head. “Milk cow inventory is reported every month, and we would expect the July 1 inventory number to be reflective of those monthly numbers reported in June and July Milk Production Report” say the editors. Still, last year milk cows totaled 9.4 million on July 1. With monthly dairy cow slaughter up 5.6 percent year to date (Jan-May), dairy cow inventory is likely to be below a year ago. Margins in the dairy sector have improved somewhat but for many regions of the U.S. margins remain tight. Further, it seems unlikely the number of dairy cow replacements will rise above a year ago.
Planning for Profitability program for farmers and agribusinesses
One-day program will focus on planning ahead while facing shrinking margins in production agriculture
ORANGE CITY, Iowa – Iowa State University (ISU) Extension and Outreach invites local farmers and agribusiness professionals to attend a free one-day Planning for Profitability workshop in either Rock Rapids or Decorah.
Planning for Profitability in a Changing Dairy Industry will focus on options to increase profitability when facing shrinking margins; risk management strategies and how they can benefit dairy operations; changes and requirements that ag lenders may be asking for when reviewing loan requests; and a review of the milk market. Continue reading “Planning For Profitability Program Set for Aug. 1 in Rock Rapids”
Due to recent declines in milk cow numbers, relatively high slaughter levels, and higher expected feed prices, milk production forecasts have been lowered for 2019 and 2020 in the USDA June World Agricultural Outlook. Dairy exports were relatively weak in April, and export forecasts have been lowered for both 2019 and 2020. The all-milk price forecast for 2019 is $18.00 per cwt, 5 cents lower than last month’s forecast. The all-milk price forecast for 2020 is $18.90 per cwt, 10 cents higher than last month’s forecast.
Milk production in Iowa during May 2019 totaled 452 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the previous May according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production report.
The average number of milk cows during May, at 217,000 head, was the same as last month but down 3,000 from last year. Monthly production per cow averaged 2,085 pounds, up 25 pounds from last May.
If only it were that easy. For many years the dairy industry has struggled with an imbalanced market- more production than domestic consumption- and generally that was a world-wide dilemma. Because milk in fluid form is highly perishable, different then corn or soy that can be stored for years, it has to be manufactured into a more stable product. Cheese, butter and powders gave a much longer shelf-life, and were put into storage by the ton.
Milk production in Iowa during April 2019 totaled 436 million pounds, down 1 percent from the previous April according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production report. The average number of milk cows during April, at 217,000 head, was the same as last month but down 3,000 from last year.
Monthly production per cow averaged 2,010 pounds, even with last April.
The May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report has milk production for 2020 forecast higher than 2019. Dairy herds are expected to begin to expand as producers respond to higher milk prices and lower feed costs. Milk per cow is expected to continue increasing, and the forecast also reflects the one extra day due to leap year.
Milk production in Iowa during March 2019 totaled 449 million pounds, down 1 percent from the previous March according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Milk Production report. The average number of milk cows during March, at 217,000 head, was down 3,000 from both last month and last year. It is noteworthy that Iowa has lost over 100 dairy herds over the past past year.
Monthly production per cow averaged 2,070 pounds, even with last March.