The WASDE report released on May 12 saw the 2023 milk production forecast lowered from the previous month. Cow inventories are raised but growth in milk per cow is slower. Fat-basis exports are lowered from the previous month, mainly on weaker butter and milk fat shipments, offset by stronger cheese.
WASDE Projects Higher Milk Production
The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates milk production higher on a larger expected cow inventory. Fat basis imports for 2023 are primarily raised on the strength of a number of dairy products during the first quarter. Imports of casein and milk protein concentrates are expected to remain firm, supporting higher skim-solids basis imports through the year. Expectations of increased competition in butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whey markets are reflected in lower forecast exports on both a fat- and a skim-solids basis for 2023.
2023 milk production is forecast higher on a larger cow inventory
The March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate in the USDA report showed Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 were adjusted to reflect revisions to estimates of milk production and stocks.
For 2023, milk production is forecast higher on a larger cow inventory. Output per cow is unchanged from last month. On both fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are raised, while exports are reduced.
Cheese prices are lowered as supplies are expected to be relatively large and domestic demand is projected to be relatively soft. Butter prices are raised on recent data. Nonfat dry milk prices are unchanged, with a weaker first quarter offset by a stronger fourth quarter. Whey prices are raised on recent price observations and stronger expected demand. With the changes in component prices, Class III prices are projected lower, while Class IV prices are projected higher. The all milk price is projected lower at 20.45 per cwt. Continue reading “2023 milk production is forecast higher on a larger cow inventory”
2023 Milk Production Lowered in Feb WASDE Report
Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect reported December
production, ending stock, and trade data in the February 8 WASDE report.
For 2023, milk production is forecast lower as weaker milk prices are expected to result in
lower cow inventories. The Cattle report estimated that the January 1, 2023 dairy cow
inventory was only fractionally above 2022 and that producers were retaining about 2 percent
fewer heifers for addition to the dairy herd. Output per cow is also reduced slightly. On both
fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are raised on higher cheese and milk protein
containing products, while exports are reduced on lower sales of skim milk powder, cheese,
and several other products.
Prices were lowered for cheese as stocks remain relatively large and domestic demand is
expected to remain generally soft. Butter prices were unchanged as higher early-year prices
are offset by weaker prices later in the year. Nonfat dry milk powder and whey prices were
lowered on expectations of increased export competition and somewhat softer international
demand. Both Class III and Class IV prices were lowered from last month, reflecting lower
product price forecasts, and the all milk price is reduced to 20.70 per cwt.
January WADSE Report Has 2022 All-Milk Over $25.50 per cwt
Milk production for 2022 is lowered from last month with lower expected milk per cow. The
2023 production forecast is lowered with a smaller expected average cow inventory for the
year; output per cow is unchanged from last month. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be
released January 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy
heifers for addition to the breeding herd.
Driven by recent trade data, fat basis imports for 2022 are unchanged with offsetting
changes for a number of products, but skim-solids basis imports are raised on expected demand for milk proteins. Strength in milk protein demand is expected to carry into 2023 and Continue reading “January WADSE Report Has 2022 All-Milk Over $25.50 per cwt”
WASDE Predicts Milk Price Up, But Margins Tighten
The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released on February 9.
The 2021 milk production, trade, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2022, the milk production forecast is lowered from last month, on lower dairy cow numbers. The Cattle report estimated the dairy cow inventory on January 1 almost one percent below 2021, and the number of heifers held for dairy cow replacement was three percent lower.
Continue reading “WASDE Predicts Milk Price Up, But Margins Tighten”
WASDE Projects 2021 All Milk Price at $17.75 per cwt
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates on Tuesday saw corn and soy supply and use mostly unchanged.
The 2020 milk production estimate is adjusted to reflect recent data revisions. For 2021, the milk production forecast is lowered slightly from last month as a higher expected cow inventory is more than offset by slower growth in milk per cow. The 2021 fat basis import forecast is reduced on lower expected imports of butterfat; fat basis exports are raised as higher shipments of butterfat more than offset lower forecast cheese exports.
On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is unchanged due to offsetting changes in imports of a number of dairy products while the export forecast is lowered, reflecting expectations of lower lactose shipments which are partly offset by higher exports of skim/nonfat milk powder.
The annual cheese price forecast is unchanged from last month as weaker prices in the first part of 2021 are offset by improved demand later in the year. Butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey price forecasts are raised from last month with expected improvements in both domestic and export demand.
These higher product prices are reflected in higher Class III and Class IV prices. The 2021 all milk price forecast is raised to $17.75 per cwt.
WASDE Predicts Higher Milk Production And Higher Prices For 2021
Milk production for 2020 is raised from last month on higher expected cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is raised from the previous month on higher imports of butter fat products, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on lower expected sales of cheese. The 2020 skim-solids basis import forecast is raised from last month on recent trade data and expectations of higher imports of a number of dairy products. The skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on higher skim milk powder and lactose exports.
Continue reading “WASDE Predicts Higher Milk Production And Higher Prices For 2021”
May WASDE Forecast More Milk
The May 12 WASDE report showed 2020 milk production forecast raised from the previous month primarily on higher-than expected cow numbers at 222.2 Billion pounds.
WASDE Report Lowers Milk Production Forecasts
On Friday the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates lowered Milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from December on slower expected growth in milk per cow.
Continue reading “WASDE Report Lowers Milk Production Forecasts”