The milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2019, the fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on strong demand for imported butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced slightly. The skim-solid basis import forecast for 2019 is raised on higher imports of milk protein concentrates and other dairy products. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is reduced primarily on weaker-than-expected sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM). For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is raised on continued strong import demand for butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on slowing sales of butterfat. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2020 is raised, but the export forecast is lowered on expected continued weak demand for NDM and increased global competition.
The May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report has milk production for 2020 forecast higher than 2019. Dairy herds are expected to begin to expand as producers respond to higher milk prices and lower feed costs. Milk per cow is expected to continue increasing, and the forecast also reflects the one extra day due to leap year.
The milk production forecast for 2019 is lowered from last month as higher milk cow numbers are more than offset by lower expected growth in milk per cow for the year. The 2019 fat basis import forecast is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is lowered on slower expected shipments of butterfat products and whey products.
For 2019, The March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates lowered the milk production forecast on smaller expected dairy cow numbers.
Yesterdays WASDE report has milk production forecasts for both 2018 and 2019 lowered from last month on slower than anticipated growth in milk per cow and lower cow numbers. Although tempered by lower expected feed costs, lower milk prices will likely weaken producer margins, resulting in lower cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released on July 20th, will provide a midyear estimate of dairy cow and dairy replacement heifer inventories.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates release June 12 forecast milk production for 2018 down from last month on slightly lower cow numbers and slower expected growth in milk per cow.
The milk production forecast for 2018 is raised from last month on more rapid growth in milk per cow in the first half of the year in the March WASDE report.
The milk production forecast for 2018 is lowered from last month on expectations of slower growth in milk per cow. The 2018 fat basis export and import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is raised slightly while the export forecast is raised on strong global demand for skim milk powder, lactose, and whey products. The 2017 production, trade, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect December data.