WASDE Projects 2021 All Milk Price at $17.75 per cwt

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates on Tuesday saw corn and soy supply and use mostly unchanged.

The 2020 milk production estimate is adjusted to reflect recent data revisions. For 2021, the milk production forecast is lowered slightly from last month as a higher expected cow inventory is more than offset by slower growth in milk per cow. The 2021 fat basis import forecast is reduced on lower expected imports of butterfat; fat basis exports are raised as higher shipments of butterfat more than offset lower forecast cheese exports.

On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is unchanged due to offsetting changes in imports of a number of dairy products while the export forecast is lowered, reflecting expectations of lower lactose shipments which are partly offset by higher exports of skim/nonfat milk powder.

The annual cheese price forecast is unchanged from last month as weaker prices in the first part of 2021 are offset by improved demand later in the year. Butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey price forecasts are raised from last month with expected improvements in both domestic and export demand.

These higher product prices are reflected in higher Class III and Class IV prices. The 2021 all milk price forecast is raised to $17.75 per cwt.

WASDE Predicts Higher Milk Production And Higher Prices For 2021

Milk production for 2020 is raised from last month on higher expected cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is raised from the previous month on higher imports of butter fat products, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on lower expected sales of cheese. The 2020 skim-solids basis import forecast is raised from last month on recent trade data and expectations of higher imports of a number of dairy products. The skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on higher skim milk powder and lactose exports.

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USDA Forecast 2020 Milks Holds At $18.85/cwt

Milk production forecasts for 2019 are raised on higher cow numbers and stronger growth in
milk per cow. For 2020, expected continued gains in milk per cow supported an increase in
the milk production forecast in this weeks WASDE report.
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WADSE Predicts Milk Production to Shrink

The milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2019, the fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on strong demand for imported butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced slightly. The skim-solid basis import forecast for 2019 is raised on higher imports of milk protein concentrates and other dairy products. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is reduced primarily on weaker-than-expected sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM). For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is raised on continued strong import demand for butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on slowing sales of butterfat. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2020 is raised, but the export forecast is lowered on expected continued weak demand for NDM and increased global competition.

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WASDE Predicts Milk Production and prices Up for 2020

The May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report  has milk production for 2020 forecast higher than 2019. Dairy herds are expected to begin to expand as producers respond to higher milk prices and lower feed costs. Milk per cow is expected to continue increasing, and the forecast also reflects the one extra day due to leap year.

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WASDE Lowers Milk Production Forecast

The milk production forecast for 2019 is lowered from last month as higher milk cow numbers are more than offset by lower expected growth in milk per cow for the year. The 2019 fat basis import forecast is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is lowered on slower expected shipments of butterfat products and whey products.

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WASDE Lowers Milk Production Forecast; Raises All Milk Price Forecast

For 2019, The March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates lowered the milk production forecast on smaller expected dairy cow numbers.

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