2023 Milk Production Lowered in Feb WASDE Report

Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect reported December
production, ending stock, and trade data in the February 8 WASDE report.
For 2023, milk production is forecast lower as weaker milk prices are expected to result in
lower cow inventories. The Cattle report estimated that the January 1, 2023 dairy cow
inventory was only fractionally above 2022 and that producers were retaining about 2 percent
fewer heifers for addition to the dairy herd. Output per cow is also reduced slightly. On both
fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are raised on higher cheese and milk protein
containing products, while exports are reduced on lower sales of skim milk powder, cheese,
and several other products.
Prices were lowered for cheese as stocks remain relatively large and domestic demand is
expected to remain generally soft. Butter prices were unchanged as higher early-year prices
are offset by weaker prices later in the year. Nonfat dry milk powder and whey prices were
lowered on expectations of increased export competition and somewhat softer international
demand. Both Class III and Class IV prices were lowered from last month, reflecting lower
product price forecasts, and the all milk price is reduced to 20.70 per cwt.

January WADSE Report Has 2022 All-Milk Over $25.50 per cwt

Milk production for 2022 is lowered from last month with lower expected milk per cow. The
2023 production forecast is lowered with a smaller expected average cow inventory for the
year; output per cow is unchanged from last month. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be
released January 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy
heifers for addition to the breeding herd.

Driven by recent trade data, fat basis imports for 2022 are unchanged with offsetting
changes for a number of products, but skim-solids basis imports are raised on expected
demand for milk proteins. Strength in milk protein demand is expected to carry into 2023 and Continue reading “January WADSE Report Has 2022 All-Milk Over $25.50 per cwt”

WASDE Predicts Milk Price Up, But Margins Tighten

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released on February 9.

The 2021 milk production, trade, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2022, the milk production forecast is lowered from last month, on lower dairy cow numbers. The Cattle report estimated the dairy cow inventory on January 1 almost one percent below 2021, and the number of heifers held for dairy cow replacement was three percent lower.

Continue reading “WASDE Predicts Milk Price Up, But Margins Tighten”

WASDE Projects 2021 All Milk Price at $17.75 per cwt

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates on Tuesday saw corn and soy supply and use mostly unchanged.

The 2020 milk production estimate is adjusted to reflect recent data revisions. For 2021, the milk production forecast is lowered slightly from last month as a higher expected cow inventory is more than offset by slower growth in milk per cow. The 2021 fat basis import forecast is reduced on lower expected imports of butterfat; fat basis exports are raised as higher shipments of butterfat more than offset lower forecast cheese exports.

On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is unchanged due to offsetting changes in imports of a number of dairy products while the export forecast is lowered, reflecting expectations of lower lactose shipments which are partly offset by higher exports of skim/nonfat milk powder.

The annual cheese price forecast is unchanged from last month as weaker prices in the first part of 2021 are offset by improved demand later in the year. Butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey price forecasts are raised from last month with expected improvements in both domestic and export demand.

These higher product prices are reflected in higher Class III and Class IV prices. The 2021 all milk price forecast is raised to $17.75 per cwt.

WASDE Predicts Higher Milk Production And Higher Prices For 2021

Milk production for 2020 is raised from last month on higher expected cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is raised from the previous month on higher imports of butter fat products, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on lower expected sales of cheese. The 2020 skim-solids basis import forecast is raised from last month on recent trade data and expectations of higher imports of a number of dairy products. The skim-solids basis export forecast is raised primarily on higher skim milk powder and lactose exports.

Continue reading “WASDE Predicts Higher Milk Production And Higher Prices For 2021”

USDA Forecast 2020 Milks Holds At $18.85/cwt

Milk production forecasts for 2019 are raised on higher cow numbers and stronger growth in
milk per cow. For 2020, expected continued gains in milk per cow supported an increase in
the milk production forecast in this weeks WASDE report.
Continue reading “USDA Forecast 2020 Milks Holds At $18.85/cwt”

WADSE Predicts Milk Production to Shrink

The milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2019, the fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on strong demand for imported butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced slightly. The skim-solid basis import forecast for 2019 is raised on higher imports of milk protein concentrates and other dairy products. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is reduced primarily on weaker-than-expected sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM). For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is raised on continued strong import demand for butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on slowing sales of butterfat. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2020 is raised, but the export forecast is lowered on expected continued weak demand for NDM and increased global competition.

Continue reading “WADSE Predicts Milk Production to Shrink”