The November USDA WASDE milk production forecast for 2023 is reduced from last month as milk cow numbers were revised lower in the most recent Milk Production report, and the lower estimated numbers are carried into the fourth quarter forecast. Growth in milk per cow is also slowed in the fourth quarter with slower-than-expected growth for the third quarter reported in the Milk Production report. The forecast for 2024 is reduced as the lower forecasts of milk cows and milk per cow for late 2023 are carried into the next year.

Continue reading “New WASDE Report Raises 2024 all milk price to $20.80 per cwt.” →

The milk production forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered from last month. The cow inventory
is reduced, reflecting the average July 2023 cow number reported in the recent Milk Production
report. The reduction in cow numbers is expected to continue through 2023 and into the first half
of 2024 as returns remain under pressure. For 2023, output-per-cow is forecast to increase at a
lower rate than previously expected on recent data and the expected impact of high temperatures during the summer. However, the forecast of milk per cow for 2024 is unchanged.
Continue reading “WASDE Lowers Milk Production For 2023 And 2024” →

The March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate in the USDA report showed Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 were adjusted to reflect revisions to estimates of milk production and stocks.
For 2023, milk production is forecast higher on a larger cow inventory. Output per cow is unchanged from last month. On both fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are raised, while exports are reduced.
Cheese prices are lowered as supplies are expected to be relatively large and domestic demand is projected to be relatively soft. Butter prices are raised on recent data. Nonfat dry milk prices are unchanged, with a weaker first quarter offset by a stronger fourth quarter. Whey prices are raised on recent price observations and stronger expected demand. With the changes in component prices, Class III prices are projected lower, while Class IV prices are projected higher. The all milk price is projected lower at 20.45 per cwt. Continue reading “2023 milk production is forecast higher on a larger cow inventory” →

Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect reported December
production, ending stock, and trade data in the February 8 WASDE report.
For 2023, milk production is forecast lower as weaker milk prices are expected to result in
lower cow inventories. The Cattle report estimated that the January 1, 2023 dairy cow
inventory was only fractionally above 2022 and that producers were retaining about 2 percent
fewer heifers for addition to the dairy herd. Output per cow is also reduced slightly. On both
fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are raised on higher cheese and milk protein
containing products, while exports are reduced on lower sales of skim milk powder, cheese,
and several other products.
Prices were lowered for cheese as stocks remain relatively large and domestic demand is
expected to remain generally soft. Butter prices were unchanged as higher early-year prices
are offset by weaker prices later in the year. Nonfat dry milk powder and whey prices were
lowered on expectations of increased export competition and somewhat softer international
demand. Both Class III and Class IV prices were lowered from last month, reflecting lower
product price forecasts, and the all milk price is reduced to 20.70 per cwt.