For 2019, The March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates lowered the milk production forecast on smaller expected dairy cow numbers.
Continue reading “WASDE Lowers Milk Production Forecast; Raises All Milk Price Forecast”
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WASDE Report Lowers Production and Price Forecast
The milk production forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced from the previous month on lower cow numbers; however, stronger growth in milk per cow is expected to partially offset smaller
dairy cow numbers.
The 2018 fat basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, but is reduced for 2019 on lower imports of milk protein concentrates. Fat basis export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged from last month.
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WASDE Lowers Production And Price Estimates
Yesterdays WASDE report has milk production forecasts for both 2018 and 2019 lowered from last month on slower than anticipated growth in milk per cow and lower cow numbers. Although tempered by lower expected feed costs, lower milk prices will likely weaken producer margins, resulting in lower cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released on July 20th, will provide a midyear estimate of dairy cow and dairy replacement heifer inventories.
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WASDE Outlook Predicts Higher Milk Prices
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates release June 12 forecast milk production for 2018 down from last month on slightly lower cow numbers and slower expected growth in milk per cow.
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WASDE Report Gloomy For Dairy
The April 10 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates showed the milk production forecast for 2018 is unchanged from last month. The 2018 import forecast is reduced slightly on a fat basis, but is unchanged on a skim-solids basis.
Exports on fat basis are unchanged from last month, but skim-solids-basis exports are raised on stronger sales of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder, and lactose.
The annual product price forecast for cheese is unchanged at the midpoint although the range is narrowed. Butter prices are expected to increase more slowly in the second half of the year and the price forecast is reduced. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is reduced slightly on current prices. The annual whey price forecast is lowered on larger supplies and weaker demand.
The Class III price is lowered on the lower whey price while the Class IV price is down on lower NDM and butter price forecasts. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $15.60 to $16.10 per cwt.
The full WASDE report can be found at REPORT
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Predict Milk Production Up for 2018
The milk production forecast for 2018 is raised from last month on more rapid growth in milk per cow in the first half of the year in the March WASDE report.
WASDE Report For February
The milk production forecast for 2018 is lowered from last month on expectations of slower growth in milk per cow. The 2018 fat basis export and import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is raised slightly while the export forecast is raised on strong global demand for skim milk powder, lactose, and whey products. The 2017 production, trade, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect December data.
December WASDE Report Sees Gloomy Forecast For Dairy
The milk production forecast is lowered for 2017 on slower growth in milk per cow. The slower growth in milk per cow is expected to carry into 2018 and combined with an expected slower rate of growth in cow numbers, the 2018 milk production forecast is lowered- that was the good news.
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November WASDE Report Shows Corn Bushels Up And Milk Down
The milk production forecast for 2017 and 2018 was lowered from the previous month on an expected slower pace of growth in milk per cow and slightly lower cow numbers. For 2017, the fat basis import forecast is lowered on recent trade data and the expectation of slower cheese imports in the fourth quarter; the forecast is raised for 2018 on higher expected shipments of whole milk powder and butter.
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Oct WASDE Report Predicts Milk Production Up, Cow Numbers Down for 2018
The milk production forecast for 2017 and 2018 is raised on a slightly more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow. However,
forecast cow numbers for late 2017 and 2018 are slightly lower. Fat basis imports for 2017 and 2018 are raised on strength in butter imports but skim-solids imports are lowered for 2017 and unchanged for 2018. Exports on a fat basis are raised for 2017 on stronger butter and cheese exports, and increased sales of butter and anhydrous milkfat are expected to support higher fat basis exports in 2018. Skim-solids exports for 2017 and 2018 are raised, primarily on stronger expected shipments of whey products.
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