The United States Dairy Export Council blog reports October U.S. dairy exports declined 2 percent year-over-year (YOY) in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms. While U.S. cheese exports continued to soar, higher U.S. prices on low-protein whey and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) created headwinds for U.S. suppliers, particularly in Southeast Asia. U.S. MSE volume was the lowest since January. October’s U.S. dairy exports totaled 478.3 million pounds, a 1.9 percent decline year over year. With only two months left of 2024, cumulative exports were 1.6 percent ahead of 2023, bolstered by a strong performance earlier in the year.
In spite of the decline in export volumes, U.S. export value was a different story. Higher commodity prices and ongoing improved sales of higher-value products like cheese and high-protein whey lifted October’s U.S. dairy export value by 11 percent to $695.7 million. After declining 5 percent in the first half of 2024, U.S. export value rose 9 percent over the four-month period of July-October. The streak lifted the YTD total to $6.92 billion—a gain of 1 percent over the first 10 months of 2023.
As mentioned in an earlier post, cheese and high-protein whey remain the stars of the show.
U.S. cheese exports rose 12 percent (+4,455 Metric Tons) to 40,283 MT in October. It was the seventh time this year that U.S. shipments topped 40,000 MT. To put that in perspective, the previous high for exceeding 40,000 MT in a month was in 2022, when U.S. suppliers did it four times.
Mexico again led the gain, as volume jumped 27 percent (+3,693 MT), but widespread geographic growth characterized the month. YOY October cheese exports to South Korea rose 36 percent (+1,220 MT), volume to Australian gained 67 percent (+955 MT), and sales to Central America increased 22 percent (+823 MT).
While the story of U.S. whey exports has generally been a positive one to tell this year the category ran into some challenges in October as low-protein whey exports fell below prior-year levels for the first time since March. Exports slipped across the portfolio of low-protein products, although permeate felt the largest losses with volume down 20 percent (-3,431 MT). Whey protein concentrate under the 0404.10 heading slipped 14 percent (-1,837 MT), while dry whey gave up 2 percent (-230 MT).
Weakness in Southeast Asia (SEA) was the principal driver of the declines, with shipments to the region down 21 percent (-2,706 MT). Reduced buying from the Philippines (-38 percent, -993 MT) had the largest impact on the regional total, while a slowdown in Malaysia (-52 percent, -441 MT), Thailand (-42 percent, -483 MT), and Vietnam (-17 percent, -799 MT) further undermined export performance. Shipments to Mexico also fell, 22 percent (-1,099 MT) YOY, while Japanese demand tumbled by 51 percent (-964 MT). U.S. low-protein exports to China eked out a 1 percent (+141 MT) gain, as stronger shipments of dry whey and whey protein concentrates made up for a slowdown in permeate exports.