WADSE Predicts Milk Production to Shrink

The milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2019, the fat basis import forecast is raised from last month on strong demand for imported butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced slightly. The skim-solid basis import forecast for 2019 is raised on higher imports of milk protein concentrates and other dairy products. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is reduced primarily on weaker-than-expected sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM). For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is raised on continued strong import demand for butter, while the fat basis export forecast is reduced on slowing sales of butterfat. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2020 is raised, but the export forecast is lowered on expected continued weak demand for NDM and increased global competition.

For 2019, cheese, butter, and whey price forecasts are raised. The NDM price forecast is reduced on current price weakness and slowing demand. For 2020, price forecasts for cheese, butter, and NDM are lowered from the previous month, but the whey price forecast is unchanged.

The 2019 Class III price forecast is raised on higher forecast cheese and whey prices. The 2019 Class IV price forecasts is reduced from the previous month as the lower forecast NDM price more than offsets the higher butter price. For 2020, the Class III and Class IV product price forecasts are lower on weaker dairy product prices.

The 2019 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.30 per cwt, but the all milk price forecast for 2020 is forecast lower than the previous month at $18.80 per cwt.

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