The May 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for 2017/18. The report included the first calendar-year 2018 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products.
The milk production forecast for 2017 is lowered as reductions in milk per cow offset increases in milk cow numbers. Fat basis imports are reduced on weaker imports of cheese and butterfat products, but imports of milk protein products support a higher
skim-solids basis import forecast. Fat basis exports are lowered on weaker sales of whole milk powder (WMP), but skim-solids basis exports are raised as weaker WMP is more than offset by higher sales of a number of skim-based products.
Ending stock forecasts are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis, reflecting current large supplies and lower expected domestic use.
Dairy products price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey are lowered as both domestic and international supplies are large. As a result both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced from last month. The all milk price for 2017 is lowered to $17.40-$17.90 per cwt.
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